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Case Study of 2010 Hurricane Karl to Evaluate the Precipitation Forecasts of the Post Updated 2010 Global Ensemble Forecast System

Title: A Case Study of 2010 Hurricane Karl to Evaluate the Precipitation Forecasts of the Post Updated 2010 Global Ensemble Forecast System.
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Name(s): Day, Lindsey, author
Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Text
Issuance: serial
Date Issued: 2011
Physical Form: computer
online resource
Extent: 1 online resource
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: This research project seeks to evaluate the rainfall forecast accuracy of the GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) following the 2010 model update, analyzing the Atlantic September 2010 Hurricane Karl as a case study. Archived forecasted accumulated precipitation amounts from the GEFS are compared with archived CMORPH (CPC Morphing Technique) precipitation estimates. A sequence of 15 six hour forecasts from 1200 UTC 14 September 2010 to 1200 UTC 18 September 2010 are graphically displayed using GrADS (Grid Analysis and Display System). Four images were produced for each of the 15 six-hour time frames: A) CMORPH 6-hour accumulated precipitation, B) GEFS 6-hour accumulated precipitation, C) Difference in GEFS and CMORPH 6-hour accumulated precipitation (GEFS-CMORPH), and D) Overlay of outlined areas of medium (≥0.25 inches) and heavy (≥1.0 inches) precipitation for the GEFS and CMORPH. Several errors in the precipitation forecast of the GEFS model post-update were consistent with errors found in the GEFS model prior to its 2010 update from previous studies. For example, the GEFS forecasted the size of the hurricane to be too large for all evaluated times. Although the six hour GEFS track forecast was closely aligned with that of the verified track, major differences between the forecast and verification occurred as the storm approached its second landfall in Mexico. This study highlights that although the model may accurately depict the storm track, other model biases such as a lower resolution, difficulty depicting the atmosphere near land/sea boundaries and over complex terrain—may significantly impact the precipitation forecast.
Identifier: FSU_migr_uhm-0011 (IID)
Keywords: GFS, CMORPH, Precipitation forcast
Submitted Note: A Thesis submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Honors in the Major.
Degree Awarded: Spring Semester, 2011.
Date of Defense: April 18, 2011.
Subject(s): Earth sciences
Atmospheric sciences
Meteorology
Oceanography
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_uhm-0011
Restrictions on Access: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
Owner Institution: FSU
Is Part of Series: Honors Theses.

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Day, L. (2011). A Case Study of 2010 Hurricane Karl to Evaluate the Precipitation Forecasts of the Post Updated 2010 Global Ensemble Forecast System. Retrieved from http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_uhm-0011