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Remotely Sensed Validation of Numerical Weather Prediction Estimates of Wind Speed Near Tropical Cyclones

Title: Remotely Sensed Validation of Numerical Weather Prediction Estimates of Wind Speed Near Tropical Cyclones.
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Name(s): Dacey, Connor, author
Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Text
Issuance: monographic
Date Issued: 2015
Physical Form: computer
online resource
Extent: 1 online resource
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: This study examined the tendencies of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS) control forecast of wind speeds near two rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Indian Ocean. The ECMWF-EPS control forecasts were compared with the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) wind speed measurements, which were considered comparison and "truth" data for this study. In total, 6 days of model forecast and ASCAT data were collected and analyzed for severe tropical cyclones Phet and Giri. Differences in the magnitudes of the wind speeds near the TCs were calculated. From these, areas can be seen in which the ECMWF-EPS control over-forecasted and under-forecasted the wind speeds. These results also help explain how the model tendencies changed throughout the lifespan of the TCs. Overall, wind speed errors were greatly associated with errors in storm location, storm shape, and storm size. No exact conclusion about the tendencies of the ECMWF-EPS control forecasts could be made due to a lack of patterns or clear biases associated with the wind speed difference results. A more in-depth study must be completed to further comment on specific tendencies of the model. Nevertheless, this study could begin the investigation into how to improve wind speed forecasts for TCs in the Indian Ocean in an effort to better save life and property in the future.
Identifier: FSU_migr_uhm-0548 (IID)
Keywords: Tropical Cyclone, Indian Ocean, ASCAT, ECMWF, Ensemble, Phet, Giri
Submitted Note: A Thesis submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for graduation with Honors in the Major.
Degree Awarded: Spring Semester, 2015.
Date of Defense: April 10, 2015.
Subject(s): Atmospheric physics
Atmospheric sciences
Meteorology
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_uhm-0548
Owner Institution: FSU
Is Part of Series: Honors Theses.

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Dacey, C. (2015). Remotely Sensed Validation of Numerical Weather Prediction Estimates of Wind Speed Near Tropical Cyclones. Retrieved from http://purl.flvc.org/fsu/fd/FSU_migr_uhm-0548