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(1 - 12 of 12)
- Title
- The Accuracy of the National Hurricane Center's United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecasts in the Atlantic Basin (2004–2012).
- Creator
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Keclik, Alexandra, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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This study examined the position, timing, and intensity of each National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Official Forecasts (OFCL) for Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes that made landfall in the United States from 2004 to 2012. During that time period, one hundred and fifty tropical cyclones developed in the Atlantic basin. Thirty-two of the cyclones made landfall in the United States as tropical storms or hurricanes. Accurate predictions of the location, timing, and intensity of tropical...
Show moreThis study examined the position, timing, and intensity of each National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Official Forecasts (OFCL) for Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes that made landfall in the United States from 2004 to 2012. During that time period, one hundred and fifty tropical cyclones developed in the Atlantic basin. Thirty-two of the cyclones made landfall in the United States as tropical storms or hurricanes. Accurate predictions of the location, timing, and intensity of tropical cyclone landfalls are important, so that people in a storm's track can prepare adequately for heavy to catastrophic wind, rain, and storm surge. The errors of each of the OFCL for Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes that made landfall in the United States during 2004–2012 are acquired from the Best Track data set. The ELTOPO1 landmask is used to find the forecasted landfall point using sequential locations from the OFCL offshore and onshore points of each forecast. The great circle distance between the forecasted and actual landfall constitutes the location error. The official landfall time is subtracted from the forecasted landfall time to find the timing error, and the official landfall wind speed is subtracted from the closest to onshore wind speed to find intensity error. There is a trend of decreasing error in location, timing, and intensity forecasting with decreasing lead time. An improvement in tropical cyclone landfall forecasting is found from comparing the 2004–2012 Atlantic landfall forecast errors to those in a study of 1976-2000 forecasts.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2014
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0324
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- Analysis of Convective Transport of Biomass Burning Emissions in Southeast Asia.
- Creator
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Ahern, Kyle, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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Biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions affect the composition of the atmosphere, thereby impacting global climate and health. Deep convective processes can loft emissions from the boundary layer into the upper troposphere or lower stratosphere (UTLS). Strong upper-level winds can potentially transport the emissions over long distances. This study focused on the deep convective transport of biomass burning emissions near the Strait of Malacca during summer. The Weather Research and...
Show moreBiomass burning and anthropogenic emissions affect the composition of the atmosphere, thereby impacting global climate and health. Deep convective processes can loft emissions from the boundary layer into the upper troposphere or lower stratosphere (UTLS). Strong upper-level winds can potentially transport the emissions over long distances. This study focused on the deep convective transport of biomass burning emissions near the Strait of Malacca during summer. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT_4) models were used to investigate deep convection and the transport of emissions from fires in the region. Fire data from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors onboard the Aqua and Terra satellites provided locations of fire emissions. These fire datasets were obtained from the University of Maryland's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS). To investigate the deep convective processes thoroughly, this study used high resolution modeling (4 km grid spacing) to resolve the convection explicitly. Explicit resolution allows the thunderstorms to be simulated more realistically than would parameterization, thus making it ideal for this research. Results showed that deep convection occurring in the Strait of Malacca is driven primarily by diurnal heating patterns and the region's topography. Convection in the region is frequent and scattered, but follows a cyclic diurnal pattern: convection over land during daytime and over the Strait during nighttime. When emissions from fires encounter areas of deep convection, they are quickly lofted to the UTLS where winds then transport them elsewhere.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2013
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0216
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- An Analysis of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.
- Creator
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Brannan, Allison, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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There is a significant frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones that complete extratropical transition and recurve in the mid-latitudes. Using a climatological approach, this study will analyze the extratropical flow response to recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones and compare the results to those from the Western North Pacific, as examined by Archambault et al. (2013). This investigation includes 54 recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones occurring between 2007 and 2013. The extratropical flow...
Show moreThere is a significant frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones that complete extratropical transition and recurve in the mid-latitudes. Using a climatological approach, this study will analyze the extratropical flow response to recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones and compare the results to those from the Western North Pacific, as examined by Archambault et al. (2013). This investigation includes 54 recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones occurring between 2007 and 2013. The extratropical flow response will be quantified using potential vorticity. Characteristics of tropical cyclones, the extratropical jet stream, and the dynamical "phasing" of their interaction will be examined to determine the features that lead to significantly amplified extratropical flow. Results show the extratropical flow to be insensitive to the wind speed, latitude, and month of recurvature. However, there is an association between low mean sea level pressure and a larger amplification of flow. Finally, tropical cyclones recurving on the east side of the nearest trough are shown to have "favorable phasing," which yields amplification of the extratropical flow.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0538
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- An Examination of the Differences in Tropical Cyclone Pressure-Wind Relationships Among Observations, Model Analyses, and Model Forecasts.
- Creator
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Visin, Lauren, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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Despite significant advances in tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting over the past few decades, intensity forecasts remain problematic, even for high-resolution computer models uniquely developed and tailored to TC prediction. This study examines the ability of two of these models, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model, to analyze and predict one measure of TC structure in the Atlantic Basin. Instead of more...
Show moreDespite significant advances in tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting over the past few decades, intensity forecasts remain problematic, even for high-resolution computer models uniquely developed and tailored to TC prediction. This study examines the ability of two of these models, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model, to analyze and predict one measure of TC structure in the Atlantic Basin. Instead of more conventional evaluations based solely on a TC's maximum wind speed or minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), the relationship between these two variables is used: a TC's pressure-wind relationship (PWR), which gives a more detailed look at how well each model analyzes and forecasts TC structure. The analysis begins in 2007, the year the GFDL was initially "frozen" (development and improvements were ceased) and also the first year that the HWRF was used for operational forecasting. Comparison of both GFDL and HWRF analyses and forecasts to the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) "best track" (database of 6-hourly observations of vital statistics such as maximum wind speed and MSLP for all TCs) revealed that, while both models produced errors in their analyses and forecasts, the GFDL outperformed the HWRF in both analysis and forecasting of TC PWR's for Atlantic Basin hurricanes from 2007-2013.. There was a subsection of particularly strong TCs (maximum winds above 120kt, MSLP lower than 950mb) whose structure was forecast especially poorly. The forecast PWR's produced by the HWRF fell largely outside the "best track" for this set of intense TCs, suggesting that the structures produced by the HWRF are inconsistent with our best estimates of observations in the Atlantic Basin and given current climate conditions. The PWR distribution evolved considerably for the HWRF over time, presumably as model improvements were made (including a decrease in model gridspacing). This has led to the model analysis PWR becoming more consistent with the model forecast PWR envelope. Nonetheless, both often fall outside the best-track estimates of PWR and potential explanations for this disparity are presented.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2014
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0386
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- Examining Shifts in Warm-Season Near-Surface Moisture Trends in Florida.
- Creator
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Swearingen, Aaron D., Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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Warm-season (1 June–31 August) near-surface moisture trends have been examined across Florida. Data was used from 86 National Weather Service cooperative stations, 24 NWS first-order stations, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ERA-Interim satellite reanalysis. Seventy-five out of eighty-six NWS cooperative stations depicted high counts of maximum low temperature records being set or broken since 1990. Twenty-four NWS hourly stations were used in conjunction with the...
Show moreWarm-season (1 June–31 August) near-surface moisture trends have been examined across Florida. Data was used from 86 National Weather Service cooperative stations, 24 NWS first-order stations, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ERA-Interim satellite reanalysis. Seventy-five out of eighty-six NWS cooperative stations depicted high counts of maximum low temperature records being set or broken since 1990. Twenty-four NWS hourly stations were used in conjunction with the Pettitt test to calculate a change point of 1990 over a 40-year period (1973–2012). Using the Pettitt results, a significant amount of NWS first-order stations depicted a rise in both early morning temperatures and dew points (Td) since 1990. A rise in total column water vapor (TCWV) was detected through the ERA-Interim reanalysis, indicating a possible increase in mid-level moisture in addition to that near the surface. A reversal in 850 hPa wind patterns and a potential shift in the Azores High were present in the reanalysis as well. An increase in atmospheric moisture levels is present and may be driven by synoptic-scale changes in wind patterns due to a shift in the Azores High.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0528
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- A High Resolution Atmospheric Chemistry Simulation of Hurricane Sandy (2012).
- Creator
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Freeman, Sean, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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Hurricane Sandy (2012) had one of the greatest economic impacts of any hurricane in United States history. However, its broader scientific impacts, especially its impacts on the chemistry of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, have not been documented. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem), run at a convective-permitting resolution, to examine the transport of pollutants inside Hurricane Sandy as it made landfall along the Eastern...
Show moreHurricane Sandy (2012) had one of the greatest economic impacts of any hurricane in United States history. However, its broader scientific impacts, especially its impacts on the chemistry of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, have not been documented. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem), run at a convective-permitting resolution, to examine the transport of pollutants inside Hurricane Sandy as it made landfall along the Eastern Seaboard. Although several pollutants were examined, the concentrations of CO throughout the atmosphere and the transport of CO from sources along the coast in Hurricane Sandy's convective region were primary focus. A forward-trajectory analysis also was performed using the high-resolution WRF-Chem data as input to the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT). The results of this high-resolution chemical and meteorological simulation will be presented with a focus on transport to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. To our knowledge, such high-resolution chemical and meteorological simulations of tropical cyclones have not been reported in the previous literature.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0477
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- Hurricane Sandy and New Jersey: The Nature of a Natural Disaster.
- Creator
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Blaskiewicz, Claire S., Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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While natural disasters can often be catalysts for change, understanding where to begin changing can be discovered by looking at the science and history of the affected area. Hurricane Sandy's unprecedented landfall in October 2012 began this progression for the state of New Jersey. This study examines the processes affecting the ocean and beaches of New Jersey, looks at the effects of Hurricane Sandy on the state and discusses the changing standards that have been and continue to be enacted...
Show moreWhile natural disasters can often be catalysts for change, understanding where to begin changing can be discovered by looking at the science and history of the affected area. Hurricane Sandy's unprecedented landfall in October 2012 began this progression for the state of New Jersey. This study examines the processes affecting the ocean and beaches of New Jersey, looks at the effects of Hurricane Sandy on the state and discusses the changing standards that have been and continue to be enacted since storm recovery began. Specifically highlighted are the engineering practices of flood mitigation, the effects of the storm on the state's economy and the new policies and standards that have come about in the aftermath.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2014
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0564
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- IC to CG Lightning Relationships over the Tallahassee CWA.
- Creator
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Jackson, Karly M., Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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The formation of and the relationship between intra-cloud (IC) and cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes have not been thoroughly studied. Understanding how these flash types interact in different types of thunderstorms can lead to a better understanding of lightning characteristics and how these characteristics can be applied to operational forecasting practices. Results of this study show that the IC:CG ratio varies greatly each day throughout the summer season over the County Warning Area...
Show moreThe formation of and the relationship between intra-cloud (IC) and cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes have not been thoroughly studied. Understanding how these flash types interact in different types of thunderstorms can lead to a better understanding of lightning characteristics and how these characteristics can be applied to operational forecasting practices. Results of this study show that the IC:CG ratio varies greatly each day throughout the summer season over the County Warning Area (CWA) of the Tallahassee National Weather Service Forecast Office. The summer season is dominated by daily thunderstorms that form due to sea breeze fronts and their resulting outflow boundaries. Eleven case study storms reveal how IC and CG flash counts and rates in non-severe thunderstorms differ from those of severe storms such as those examined by Williams et al. (1999). Results of the present study reveal that the timing of CG lightning and the frequency of its strikes differ from those of severe storms. This is most likely due to severe storms producing stronger updrafts for longer periods of time than those of non-severe storms. The IC:CG ratios varied greatly among these case studies indicating that further studies must be done to determine a statistically significant understanding of how flash rates change and how the relationship between IC and CG flashes relate to the ratios they produce.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0552
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- The Increasing Intensity and Frequency of ENSO and its Impacts to the Southeast U.S.
- Creator
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McNaught, Carlysle, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important natural climate variation that affects large portions of the world. The changing magnitude and frequency of ENSO reveals that it is getting stronger as measured by the maximum anomaly in sea surface temperature (SST). Principal component analysis of the ENSO is conducted to estimate the spectrum of the SST of the time series. The intensity of the ENSO events during the period 1970—2010 is statistically significantly higher when compared...
Show moreThe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important natural climate variation that affects large portions of the world. The changing magnitude and frequency of ENSO reveals that it is getting stronger as measured by the maximum anomaly in sea surface temperature (SST). Principal component analysis of the ENSO is conducted to estimate the spectrum of the SST of the time series. The intensity of the ENSO events during the period 1970—2010 is statistically significantly higher when compared to the period 1930—1970, with a broad spectral peak centered around 4 years. When we compare the SST spectrum for the period 1930—1970 with the spectrum for 1970—2010, we find the latter period to be much stronger in power. The resultant impact of more powerful and frequent ENSO events on the Southeast United States is examined through a spatial and temporal statistical analysis of precipitation and temperatures between the two time periods. Our analysis reveals statistically significant changes in precipitation during El Niño where the rainfall is much more widespread across the Southeast during the 1970—2010 period than the 1930—1970 period. The La Niña rainfall deficit is mainly confined to Florida in the latter period than the former. Finally, the temperature distribution, through an analysis of the first four statistical moments, showed conventional responses to the changes in ENSO precipitation such as an anomalous decrease in maximum temperatures during El Niño and an overall anomalous increase in temperatures during La Niña.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2014
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0356
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- Investigating Relationships Between Rising Temperatures and Heavy Rainfall Events in the Southeastern U.S. Using Analog Methods.
- Creator
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Zuromski, Lauren, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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This study examines how extreme precipitation influences temperatures, and how temperature extremes influence precipitation in the Southeastern U.S., seasonally, using observational data. For the precipitation influencing temperature approach, three precipitation regimes are created (wet, dry, and neutral) to observe possible shifts in the distributions of seasonal average daily maximum and minimum temperatures based on precipitation extremes. Similarly, for the temperature influencing...
Show moreThis study examines how extreme precipitation influences temperatures, and how temperature extremes influence precipitation in the Southeastern U.S., seasonally, using observational data. For the precipitation influencing temperature approach, three precipitation regimes are created (wet, dry, and neutral) to observe possible shifts in the distributions of seasonal average daily maximum and minimum temperatures based on precipitation extremes. Similarly, for the temperature influencing precipitation, three temperature regimes are created (warm, cool, and neutral), to observe how the frequency of rainfall events of 1.00" or more shifts in each temperature regime. For the precipitation influencing temperature approach, most notably, it is found that in summer, spring, and fall, in a wet precipitation regime, the maximum temperatures are typically warmer (cooler) than the average maximum temperatures in a neutral regime; the opposite pattern is observed for winter. It is also found that these temperature distributions do not shift in a uniform way across the Southeast, though several regional continuities exist. For the temperature influencing precipitation approach, it is found that spring, summer, and winter show the largest differences in the frequency of rainfall events of 1.00" or more between the cool and warm temperature regimes. This study also examines five case study stations in the Southeast to observe regional nuances in temperature and precipitation patterns.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0511
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- Remotely Sensed Validation of Numerical Weather Prediction Estimates of Wind Speed Near Tropical Cyclones.
- Creator
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Dacey, Connor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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This study examined the tendencies of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS) control forecast of wind speeds near two rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Indian Ocean. The ECMWF-EPS control forecasts were compared with the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) wind speed measurements, which were considered comparison and "truth" data for this study. In total, 6 days of model forecast and ASCAT data were collected and analyzed...
Show moreThis study examined the tendencies of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS) control forecast of wind speeds near two rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Indian Ocean. The ECMWF-EPS control forecasts were compared with the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) wind speed measurements, which were considered comparison and "truth" data for this study. In total, 6 days of model forecast and ASCAT data were collected and analyzed for severe tropical cyclones Phet and Giri. Differences in the magnitudes of the wind speeds near the TCs were calculated. From these, areas can be seen in which the ECMWF-EPS control over-forecasted and under-forecasted the wind speeds. These results also help explain how the model tendencies changed throughout the lifespan of the TCs. Overall, wind speed errors were greatly associated with errors in storm location, storm shape, and storm size. No exact conclusion about the tendencies of the ECMWF-EPS control forecasts could be made due to a lack of patterns or clear biases associated with the wind speed difference results. A more in-depth study must be completed to further comment on specific tendencies of the model. Nevertheless, this study could begin the investigation into how to improve wind speed forecasts for TCs in the Indian Ocean in an effort to better save life and property in the future.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0548
- Format
- Thesis
- Title
- Stratospheric Polar Vortex Warming and Cold Air Outbreaks: A Case Study.
- Creator
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Perrini, Nikki, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Abstract/Description
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The predictability of the stratospheric circulations and the connection between the stratospheric branch and cold air branch allow us to predict large continental-scale cold air outbreaks with ample lead-time. Based on this, we have made experimental sub-seasonal forecasts for cold air outbreaks across the mid-latitude regions of North America, Europe, and Eastern Asia. The forecasts made in this winter have provided the public with a lead-time of 20-45 days for individual cold air outbreak...
Show moreThe predictability of the stratospheric circulations and the connection between the stratospheric branch and cold air branch allow us to predict large continental-scale cold air outbreaks with ample lead-time. Based on this, we have made experimental sub-seasonal forecasts for cold air outbreaks across the mid-latitude regions of North America, Europe, and Eastern Asia. The forecasts made in this winter have provided the public with a lead-time of 20-45 days for individual cold air outbreak events. This thesis also made a case study of a strong stratospheric circulation event called "STRAT_E", which had the longest duration and was the most intense cold air outbreak episode. The case study helps to further explain the processes behind cold air outbreaks.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- FSU_migr_uhm-0535
- Format
- Thesis
